Leaders often wait for perfect proof. Others act with almost none. Both create risk. You need a simple threshold for action.

Three evidence levels

1. Signal level

   • A pattern appears in one dataset.

   • Action: investigate and confirm.

2. Converging level

   • Two or three sources point the same way.

   • Action: run a small, targeted adjustment.

3. Strong level

   • Converging evidence plus a plausible mechanism.

   • Action: scale, resource, and monitor.

What counts as “good enough”

• The pattern is consistent, not a one-off.

• The explanation is plausible and testable.

• The proposed action is low risk and reversible.

• You have a monitoring plan.

A useful leadership sentence
“We have enough evidence to trial a small change, and we will review it in two weeks.”

Key Takeaways

• Match the size of action to the strength of evidence.

• Trial small changes before scaling.

• Monitoring is part of the decision, not an extra.

Quick Check

Write one low risk action you could trial if your hypothesis looks plausible.